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Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura
Apertura - 14
Parque Artigas· Las Piedras
Sunday, May 3, 2026
15:00
Boston River
PPG 1.00
2-1
MISS
Central Espanol
PPG 1.57
Away· +20.6%
🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
95% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
32.2%
Odds: 2.18
EV: -29.8%
Draw
30.7%
Odds: 3.10
EV: -4.8%
Away
37.1%
Odds: 3.25
EV: +20.6%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
46.1%
Odds: 2.20
+1.4%
Over 3.5
24.6%
Odds: 4.20
+3.3%
BTTS
53.1%
Odds: 1.85
-1.8%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
0-1
✘
4th
1-2
✘
5th
1-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Boston River
1.21
Central Espanol
1.31
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-1.8%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV:
Away (+20.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity
95%
UPSET_VALUE
Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)