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Danubio vs Albion Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 15 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:30

Danubio

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Albion

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.7%0-28.0%0-33.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.1%2-17.0%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% — — —

Draw 26.3% — — —

Away win 40.5% — — —

Over 2.5 46.5% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1✓ 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Danubio1.1

Albion1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DANUBIO · PPG 1.67

ALBION · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.67) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Danubio (H) 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Albion (A) 40.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Danubio face Albion in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Danubio a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Albion 41%, so Albion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Danubio and 1.4 for Albion (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Danubio are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.00 for Albion. This match finished 0-1.

Danubio vs Albion Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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