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Wanderers vs Liverpool M. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 15 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 22:30

Wanderers

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Liverpool M.

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-112.6%0-28.5%0-33.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.9%2-16.6%2-24.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 30.3% 3.30 -0.8%

Draw 27.9% 30.8% 3.25 -5.6%

Away win 42.2% 48.1% 2.08 -12.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Over 3.5 21.4% 27.0% 3.70 -12.5%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wanderers1.0

Liverpool M.1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WANDERERS · PPG 1.57

LIVERPOOL M. · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Wanderers (H) 29.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.8%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.6%

Liverpool M. (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wanderers face Liverpool M. in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wanderers a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Liverpool M. 42%, so Liverpool M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Wanderers and 1.3 for Liverpool M. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wanderers are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.71 for Liverpool M.. This match finished 1-0.

Wanderers vs Liverpool M. Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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