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Progreso vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 14 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 12:30

Progreso

PPG 0.71 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.9%0-27.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.1%2-17.3%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.3%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 39.7% 2.52 -20.4%

Draw 32.2% 32.3% 3.10 -0.2%

Away win 36.2% 36.8% 2.72 -1.5%

Over 2.5 40.9% 42.6% 2.35 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.4% 22.2% 4.50 -8.2%

BTTS 49.0% 51.8% 1.93 -5.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.0%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 0–1✓ 11.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Progreso1.1

Cerro Largo1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PROGRESO · PPG 0.71

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.71), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Progreso (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -20.4%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.2%

Cerro Largo (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Progreso face Cerro Largo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Progreso a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Cerro Largo 36%, so Cerro Largo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Progreso and 1.2 for Cerro Largo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Progreso are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Cerro Largo. This match finished 0-1.

Progreso vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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