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IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

IA Akranes

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

UPCOMING

KR Reykjavik

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 82% chance

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-12.0%0-22.7%0-32.5%0-4+3.2%1 1-01.6%1-14.4%1-26.0%1-35.4%1-4+7.1%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.6%2-35.9%2-4+7.7%3 3-01.3%3-13.5%3-24.8%3-34.3%3-4+5.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-13.2%4+-24.4%4+-33.9%4+-4+5.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 30.8% 3.25 +13.4%

Draw 18.7% 25.0% 4.00 -15.1%

Away win 46.4% 55.6% 1.80 -16.5%

Over 2.5 77.4% 83.3% 1.20 -7.1%

Over 3.5 56.6% 66.7% 1.50 -15.1%

BTTS 69.7% 82.0% 1.22 -15.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 57.8% 1.73 +13.8%

Away O1.5 69.2% 73.5% 1.36 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob69.7%

A 46% / xG 2.2-2.7 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 1–2 6.0%

#3 2–3 5.9%

#4 2–1 4.8%

#5 3–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IA Akranes2.2

KR Reykjavik2.7

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IA AKRANES · PPG 1.30

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.70

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

82%

DANGER

xG gap -0.52 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

IA Akranes (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +13.4%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -15.1%

KR Reykjavik (A) 46.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

IA Akranes face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IA Akranes a 35% chance, the draw 19% and KR Reykjavik 46%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for IA Akranes and 2.7 for KR Reykjavik (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IA Akranes are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.70 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +27.5%.

IA Akranes vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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