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KA Akureyri vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Breidablik

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.1%0-25.0%0-33.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-04.5%1-18.7%1-28.4%1-35.5%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.3%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.1%3-14.1%3-24.0%3-32.6%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

Draw 21.0% 26.7% 3.75 -12.8%

Away win 42.3% 45.5% 2.20 -6.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 58.3% 63.7% 1.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KA Akureyri1.7

Breidablik1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.70

BREIDABLIK · PPG 1.10

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

74%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

KA Akureyri (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.8%

Breidablik (A) 42.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

KA Akureyri face Breidablik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KA Akureyri a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Breidablik 42%, so Breidablik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for KA Akureyri and 1.9 for Breidablik (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KA Akureyri are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.10 for Breidablik. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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