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Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

Keflavik

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

UPCOMING

Valur Reykjavik

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.8%0-22.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.3%1-18.2%1-26.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.2%3-16.4%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.8%4+-24.4%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 47.6% 2.10 +6.9%

Draw 20.9% 25.3% 3.95 -10.5%

Away win 28.1% 37.0% 2.70 -14.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 76.9% 1.30 -11.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 55.6% 1.80 -19.0%

BTTS 63.5% 78.1% 1.28 -18.7%

Home O1.5 64.4% 65.4% 1.53 -1.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik2.2

Valur Reykjavik1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 1.80

VALUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +6.9%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.5%

Valur Reykjavik (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face Valur Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Valur Reykjavik 28%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Keflavik and 1.5 for Valur Reykjavik (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Valur Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.1%.

Keflavik vs Valur Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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