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Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Stjarnan

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.3%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.9%1-17.6%1-25.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.6%2-18.7%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.3%3-16.7%3-25.2%3-32.7%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-16.5%4+-25.1%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 57.1% 1.75 -8.3%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.1%

Away win 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 54.6% 1.83 -17.6%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.4% 1.44 -4.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan2.3

IBV Vestmannaeyjar1.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 1.30

IBV VESTMANNAEYJAR · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.1%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face IBV Vestmannaeyjar in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 52% chance, the draw 21% and IBV Vestmannaeyjar 26%, so Stjarnan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Stjarnan and 1.6 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.60 for IBV Vestmannaeyjar. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +5.4%.

Stjarnan vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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