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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Vikingur Reykjavik

PPG 2.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

UPCOMING

Fram Reykjavik

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 77% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.7%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.1%1-15.2%1-23.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.3%2-17.9%2-24.9%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-113.0%4+-28.2%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Draw 15.4% 22.7% 4.40 -19.3%

Away win 20.7% 20.8% 4.80 -0.4%

Over 2.5 72.6% 76.9% 1.30 -5.6%

Over 3.5 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 77.9% 76.9% 1.30 +1.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 42.0% 2.38 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 3.1-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 1–2 3.2%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur Reykjavik3.1

Fram Reykjavik1.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.60

FRAM REYKJAVIK · PPG 2.30

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

77%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.80 for Home, form 2.60 vs 2.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur Reykjavik (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -8.0%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -19.3%

Fram Reykjavik (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur Reykjavik face Fram Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur Reykjavik a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Fram Reykjavik 21%, so Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Vikingur Reykjavik and 1.3 for Fram Reykjavik (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur Reykjavik are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.30 for Fram Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fram Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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