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Thor Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Thor Akureyri

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

UPCOMING

FH hafnarfjordur

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.0%0-26.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.2%1-111.9%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 39.7% 48.8% 2.05 -18.6%

Over 2.5 57.3% 66.7% 1.50 -14.1%

Over 3.5 35.4% 47.6% 2.10 -25.7%

BTTS 59.0% 71.4% 1.40 -17.4%

Home O1.5 38.9% 47.6% 2.10 -18.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 59.9% 1.67 -29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.0%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thor Akureyri1.3

FH hafnarfjordur1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 1.00

FH HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Thor Akureyri (H) 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

FH hafnarfjordur (A) 39.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thor Akureyri face FH hafnarfjordur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thor Akureyri a 36% chance, the draw 24% and FH hafnarfjordur 40%, so FH hafnarfjordur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Thor Akureyri and 1.5 for FH hafnarfjordur (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thor Akureyri are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for FH hafnarfjordur.

Thor Akureyri vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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