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Schott Mainz vs Kickers Offenb. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Schott Mainz

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kickers Offenb.

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.2%0-26.4%0-36.5%0-4+10.3%1 1-01.7%1-15.3%1-28.0%1-38.0%1-4+12.8%2 2-01.1%2-13.3%2-25.0%2-35.0%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-22.1%3-32.1%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.6% 28.6% 3.50 -55.9%

Draw 14.3% 26.7% 3.75 -46.4%

Away win 73.1% 54.6% 1.83 +33.8%

Over 2.5 79.9% 69.0% 1.45 +15.8%

Over 3.5 61.7% 46.5% 2.15 +32.6%

BTTS 67.7% 70.4% 1.42 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob67.7%

A 73% / xG 1.2-3.0 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 8.0%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 0–3 6.5%

#4 0–2 6.4%

#5 1–4 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schott Mainz1.2

Kickers Offenb.3.0

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.9% · O3.5 PROB 61.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHOTT MAINZ · PPG 0.50

KICKERS OFFENB. · PPG 0.93

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Schott Mainz (H) 12.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -55.9%

Draw 14.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -46.4%

Kickers Offenb. (A) 73.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schott Mainz face Kickers Offenb. in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schott Mainz a 13% chance, the draw 14% and Kickers Offenb. 73%, so Kickers Offenb. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Schott Mainz and 3.0 for Kickers Offenb. (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schott Mainz are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.93 for Kickers Offenb.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Schott Mainz vs Kickers Offenb. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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