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Bahlinger vs Grossaspach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Bahlinger

PPG 0.73 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Grossaspach

PPG 2.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 90.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-13.3%0-26.6%0-38.8%0-4+26.0%1 1-00.6%1-12.6%1-25.2%1-36.9%1-4+20.5%2 2-00.3%2-11.0%2-22.0%2-32.7%2-4+8.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.5%3-30.7%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 3.2% 15.4% 6.50 -79.2%

Draw 6.3% 22.2% 4.50 -71.7%

Away win 90.5% 73.5% 1.36 +23.1%

Over 2.5 85.9% 69.4% 1.44 +23.7%

Over 3.5 70.8% 47.6% 2.10 +48.7%

BTTS 53.6% 63.7% 1.57 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.0 BTTS prob53.6%

A 90% / xG 0.8-4.0 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 8.9%

#2 0–3 8.8%

#3 0–5 7.2%

#4 1–4 7.0%

#5 1–3 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahlinger0.8

Grossaspach4.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.9% · O3.5 PROB 70.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHLINGER · PPG 0.73

GROSSASPACH · PPG 2.21

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs Home POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Bahlinger (H) 3.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -79.2%

Draw 6.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -71.7%

Grossaspach (A) 90.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahlinger face Grossaspach in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahlinger a 3% chance, the draw 6% and Grossaspach 91%, so Grossaspach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Bahlinger and 4.0 for Grossaspach (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahlinger are averaging 0.73 points per game versus 2.21 for Grossaspach. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +48.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Bahlinger vs Grossaspach Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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