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FSV Mainz B vs Freiburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Südwest - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

FSV Mainz B

PPG 1.81 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiburg B

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.4%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.0%1-17.7%1-25.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.7%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.6%4+-25.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Draw 23.1% 24.4% 4.10 -3.2%

Away win 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

BTTS 62.8% 76.9% 1.30 -18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.8%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Mainz B2.3

Freiburg B1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV MAINZ B · PPG 1.81

FREIBURG B · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Mainz B (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.9%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -3.2%

Freiburg B (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Mainz B face Freiburg B in Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Mainz B a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Freiburg B 25%, so FSV Mainz B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for FSV Mainz B and 1.5 for Freiburg B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Mainz B are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.31 for Freiburg B. This match finished 0-4.

FSV Mainz B vs Freiburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - SudWest

Match Preview & Prediction

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