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Meuselwitz vs RW Erfurt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:00

Meuselwitz

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RW Erfurt

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.0%0-26.8%0-35.1%0-4+4.9%1 1-03.6%1-18.2%1-29.3%1-37.0%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.5%2-15.6%2-26.3%2-34.8%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-22.9%3-32.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 33.9% 2.95 -33.6%

Draw 19.8% 26.7% 3.75 -25.8%

Away win 57.7% 50.0% 2.00 +15.4%

Over 2.5 70.4% 63.7% 1.57 +10.5%

Over 3.5 49.3% 40.8% 2.45 +20.8%

BTTS 66.9% 66.7% 1.50 +0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob66.9%

A 58% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meuselwitz1.4

RW Erfurt2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MEUSELWITZ · PPG 1.14

RW ERFURT · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Meuselwitz (H) 22.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -33.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -25.8%

RW Erfurt (A) 57.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meuselwitz face RW Erfurt in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meuselwitz a 23% chance, the draw 20% and RW Erfurt 58%, so RW Erfurt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Meuselwitz and 2.3 for RW Erfurt (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meuselwitz are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.00 for RW Erfurt. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Meuselwitz vs RW Erfurt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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