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BFC Dynamo vs Chemnitzer FC Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

BFC Dynamo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chemnitzer FC

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.5%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.0%1-111.4%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-18.7%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.1%3-14.4%3-23.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 42.0% 2.38 -8.1%

Draw 25.4% 27.0% 3.70 -3.6%

Away win 36.0% 40.8% 2.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 59.1% 62.5% 1.60 -5.4%

Over 3.5 33.9% 40.0% 2.50 -15.3%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFC Dynamo1.5

Chemnitzer FC1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BFC DYNAMO · PPG 1.33

CHEMNITZER FC · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

BFC Dynamo (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -8.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.6%

Chemnitzer FC (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFC Dynamo face Chemnitzer FC in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFC Dynamo a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Chemnitzer FC 36%, so BFC Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for BFC Dynamo and 1.4 for Chemnitzer FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFC Dynamo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.13 for Chemnitzer FC. This match finished 2-2.

BFC Dynamo vs Chemnitzer FC Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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