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Zwickau vs Chemie Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Zwickau

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chemie Leipzig

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.8%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.5%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 54.6% 1.83 -6.9%

Draw 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Away win 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 69.0% 1.45 -23.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 47.6% 2.10 -24.2%

BTTS 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0✓ 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zwickau1.7

Chemie Leipzig1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ZWICKAU · PPG 2.38

CHEMIE LEIPZIG · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=50.9%

Win probability 1X2

Zwickau (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -6.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Chemie Leipzig (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zwickau face Chemie Leipzig in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zwickau a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Chemie Leipzig 24%, so Zwickau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Zwickau and 1.0 for Chemie Leipzig (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zwickau are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.94 for Chemie Leipzig. This match finished 1-0.

Zwickau vs Chemie Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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