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Chemnitzer FC vs Zwickau Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 14:00

Chemnitzer FC

PPG 1.81 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Zwickau

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.1%0-24.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.7%1-110.6%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.8%3-15.3%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.4%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 40.8% 2.45 +10.7%

Draw 26.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.5%

Away win 28.1% 40.0% 2.50 -17.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 59.9% 1.67 +0.5%

Over 3.5 38.0% 37.0% 2.70 +2.6%

BTTS 58.8% 65.4% 1.53 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chemnitzer FC1.7

Zwickau1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHEMNITZER FC · PPG 1.81

ZWICKAU · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Chemnitzer FC (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +10.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.5%

Zwickau (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chemnitzer FC face Zwickau in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chemnitzer FC a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Zwickau 28%, so Chemnitzer FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Chemnitzer FC and 1.4 for Zwickau (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chemnitzer FC are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.44 for Zwickau. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Chemnitzer FC vs Zwickau Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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