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Carl Zeiss Jena vs RW Erfurt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Carl Zeiss Jena

PPG 2.44 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

RW Erfurt

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.4%0-24.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.5%1-111.0%1-27.1%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.3%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 57.1% 1.75 -15.1%

Draw 25.8% 26.7% 3.75 -1.9%

Away win 25.8% 25.6% 3.90 +0.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 35.3% 45.5% 2.20 -22.3%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0✓ 7.2%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carl Zeiss Jena1.7

RW Erfurt1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CARL ZEISS JENA · PPG 2.44

RW ERFURT · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.44) > Away GOOD (1.94)

Win probability 1X2

Carl Zeiss Jena (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -15.1%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.9%

RW Erfurt (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carl Zeiss Jena face RW Erfurt in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carl Zeiss Jena a 49% chance, the draw 26% and RW Erfurt 26%, so Carl Zeiss Jena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Carl Zeiss Jena and 1.3 for RW Erfurt (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carl Zeiss Jena are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.94 for RW Erfurt. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Carl Zeiss Jena vs RW Erfurt Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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