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Altglienicke vs BFC Preussen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Altglienicke

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

BFC Preussen

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.2%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.1%1-110.9%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.6%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 57.1% 1.75 -10.8%

Draw 24.9% 25.0% 4.00 -0.2%

Away win 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 34.4% 45.5% 2.20 -24.3%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0✓ 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altglienicke1.8

BFC Preussen1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTGLIENICKE · PPG 1.56

BFC PREUSSEN · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Altglienicke (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -0.2%

BFC Preussen (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altglienicke face BFC Preussen in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altglienicke a 51% chance, the draw 25% and BFC Preussen 24%, so Altglienicke are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Altglienicke and 1.2 for BFC Preussen (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altglienicke are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.38 for BFC Preussen. This match finished 1-0.

Altglienicke vs BFC Preussen Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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