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Meuselwitz vs Luckenwalde Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Meuselwitz

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Luckenwalde

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.5%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.2%1-112.4%1-28.4%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 46.5% 2.15 -22.6%

Draw 27.1% 27.4% 3.65 -0.7%

Away win 36.9% 35.7% 2.80 +3.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Over 3.5 27.5% 37.0% 2.70 -15.4%

BTTS 54.2% 64.5% 1.55 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.2%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meuselwitz1.3

Luckenwalde1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MEUSELWITZ · PPG 1.00

LUCKENWALDE · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Meuselwitz (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -0.7%

Luckenwalde (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meuselwitz face Luckenwalde in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meuselwitz a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Luckenwalde 37%, so Luckenwalde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Meuselwitz and 1.4 for Luckenwalde (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meuselwitz are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Luckenwalde. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Meuselwitz vs Luckenwalde Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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