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H. Zehlendorf vs Greifswald Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

H. Zehlendorf

PPG 0.56 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Greifswald

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-112.3%0-210.0%0-35.4%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.2%1-111.8%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.5%2-15.6%2-24.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Draw 27.5% 27.0% 3.70 +1.1%

Away win 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 2.5 51.1% 61.7% 1.62 -17.2%

Over 3.5 26.0% 39.2% 2.55 -20.2%

BTTS 51.6% 65.4% 1.53 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 48% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 0–2 10.0%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

H. Zehlendorf1.0

Greifswald1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

H. ZEHLENDORF · PPG 0.56

GREIFSWALD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.56) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

H. Zehlendorf (H) 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +1.1%

Greifswald (A) 47.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

H. Zehlendorf face Greifswald in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives H. Zehlendorf a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Greifswald 48%, so Greifswald are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for H. Zehlendorf and 1.6 for Greifswald (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, H. Zehlendorf are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Greifswald. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 2-3.

H. Zehlendorf vs Greifswald Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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