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Lok. Leipzig vs Magdeburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Lok. Leipzig

PPG 2.13 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Magdeburg B

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.6%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.2%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 78.1% 1.28 -33.1%

Draw 24.3% 20.0% 5.00 +12.9%

Away win 23.5% 11.9% 8.40 +58.4%

Over 2.5 58.0% 72.5% 1.38 -20.0%

Over 3.5 32.5% 51.8% 1.93 -37.3%

BTTS 53.4% 62.5% 1.60 -14.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lok. Leipzig1.9

Magdeburg B1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOK. LEIPZIG · PPG 2.13

MAGDEBURG B · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Lok. Leipzig (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -33.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.9%

Magdeburg B (A) 23.5%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +58.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lok. Leipzig face Magdeburg B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lok. Leipzig a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Magdeburg B 24%, so Lok. Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lok. Leipzig and 1.0 for Magdeburg B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lok. Leipzig are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.44 for Magdeburg B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.4%. This match finished 5-2.

Lok. Leipzig vs Magdeburg B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

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