Today / Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost / Babelsberg vs Hertha Berlin B

Babelsberg vs Hertha Berlin B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Nordost - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Babelsberg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hertha Berlin B

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.8%0-22.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.3%1-18.2%1-26.3%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.1%3-16.4%3-24.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-15.7%4+-24.4%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 50.0% 2.00 +2.4%

Draw 23.8% 27.0% 3.70 -7.2%

Away win 25.0% 33.3% 3.00 -15.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 50.7% 48.8% 2.05 +3.9%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1✓ 6.4%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Babelsberg2.2

Hertha Berlin B1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BABELSBERG · PPG 1.00

HERTHA BERLIN B · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Babelsberg (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +2.4%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.2%

Hertha Berlin B (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Babelsberg face Hertha Berlin B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Babelsberg a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Hertha Berlin B 25%, so Babelsberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Babelsberg and 1.5 for Hertha Berlin B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Babelsberg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Hertha Berlin B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Babelsberg vs Hertha Berlin B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Regionalliga - Nordost Predictions