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Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Kalmar FF

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

UPCOMING

Djurgardens IF

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Away 56% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.4%0-29.7%0-35.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.8%1-111.5%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.4%2-15.8%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% 25.0% 4.00 -6.5%

Draw 22.3% 28.6% 3.50 -13.2%

Away win 55.5% 55.6% 1.80 -0.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 50.4% 61.7% 1.62 -18.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 57.8% 1.73 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -11.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob50.4%

A 56% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalmar FF1.0

Djurgardens IF1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KALMAR FF · PPG 1.89

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 2.11

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Kalmar FF (H) 22.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.2%

Djurgardens IF (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalmar FF face Djurgardens IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalmar FF a 22% chance, the draw 22% and Djurgardens IF 56%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kalmar FF and 1.7 for Djurgardens IF (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalmar FF are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 2.11 for Djurgardens IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.1%.

Kalmar FF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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