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Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 10 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 17:00

Mjallby AIF

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Djurgardens IF

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.7%0-28.1%0-35.0%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.7%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.3%2-25.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.4%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 26.7% 3.75 -5.5%

Draw 23.1% 26.0% 3.85 -6.6%

Away win 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Over 2.5 61.4% 61.7% 1.62 -0.5%

Over 3.5 40.1% 38.5% 2.60 +4.3%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

Away O1.5 58.3% 58.8% 1.70 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.5%

A 53% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby AIF1.2

Djurgardens IF1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY AIF · PPG 1.25

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.65 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby AIF (H) 24.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.6%

Djurgardens IF (A) 52.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby AIF face Djurgardens IF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby AIF a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Djurgardens IF 53%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mjallby AIF and 1.9 for Djurgardens IF (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Djurgardens IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.5%.

Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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