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Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 19 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 17:00

Djurgardens IF

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Mjallby AIF

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.6%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.4%1-18.4%1-24.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.6%3-17.4%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-17.4%4+-24.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 66.7% 1.50 -16.3%

Draw 21.5% 22.7% 4.40 -3.2%

Away win 22.7% 17.4% 5.75 +18.3%

Over 2.5 65.0% 64.5% 1.55 +0.8%

Over 3.5 44.8% 41.7% 2.40 +7.5%

BTTS 61.5% 62.5% 1.60 -1.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 31.3% 3.20 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 89 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2 4.7%

#5 3–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgardens IF2.3

Mjallby AIF1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDENS IF · PPG 1.44

MJALLBY AIF · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Djurgardens IF (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -3.2%

Mjallby AIF (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgardens IF face Mjallby AIF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgardens IF a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Mjallby AIF 23%, so Djurgardens IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Djurgardens IF and 1.1 for Mjallby AIF (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.25 for Mjallby AIF. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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