Today / Sweden - Allsvenskan / Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm

Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Malmo FF

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

UPCOMING

AIK Stockholm

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.9%0-23.9%0-32.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-05.7%1-19.2%1-27.4%1-33.9%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.7%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.4%3-15.5%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 57.8% 1.73 -25.1%

Draw 22.0% 25.6% 3.90 -8.5%

Away win 34.8% 25.0% 4.00 +39.2%

Over 2.5 66.6% 66.7% 1.50 -0.1%

Over 3.5 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 63.7% 1.57 -12.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 38.2% 2.62 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -11.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malmo FF1.9

AIK Stockholm1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MALMO FF · PPG 1.00

AIK STOCKHOLM · PPG 1.90

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Malmo FF (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -25.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.5%

AIK Stockholm (A) 34.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +39.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malmo FF face AIK Stockholm in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malmo FF a 43% chance, the draw 22% and AIK Stockholm 35%, so Malmo FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Malmo FF and 1.6 for AIK Stockholm (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malmo FF are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.90 for AIK Stockholm. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +31.6%.

Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Allsvenskan Predictions