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Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Orgryte IS

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Hammarby FF

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 78% chance

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.2%0-28.3%0-36.4%0-4+6.3%1 1-03.6%1-18.4%1-29.6%1-37.4%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.1%2-14.9%2-25.6%2-34.3%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.2%3-31.7%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 9.1% 11.00 +90.5%

Draw 20.1% 16.7% 6.00 +12.4%

Away win 57.1% 83.3% 1.20 -31.5%

Over 2.5 64.7% 75.2% 1.33 -14.0%

Over 3.5 44.7% 55.6% 1.80 -19.5%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 31.8% 25.0% 4.00 +27.2%

Away O1.5 69.2% 82.0% 1.22 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -11.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.5%

A 57% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 2–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orgryte IS1.2

Hammarby FF2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORGRYTE IS · PPG 0.89

HAMMARBY FF · PPG 1.22

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

78%

DANGER

xG gap -1.14 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Orgryte IS (H) 22.8%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +90.5%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +12.4%

Hammarby FF (A) 57.1%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orgryte IS face Hammarby FF in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orgryte IS a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Hammarby FF 57%, so Hammarby FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orgryte IS and 2.3 for Hammarby FF (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orgryte IS are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.22 for Hammarby FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +76.8%.

Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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