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IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:30

IF Brommapojkarna

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

IF Elfsborg

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.7%0-26.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.3%1-112.9%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.2%2-17.8%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.2%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 30.3% 3.30 +17.8%

Draw 26.2% 30.3% 3.30 -8.1%

Away win 38.1% 48.8% 2.05 -21.9%

Over 2.5 50.7% 57.1% 1.75 -11.3%

Over 3.5 30.6% 36.4% 2.75 -15.8%

BTTS 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Home O1.5 33.1% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

Away O1.5 36.8% 52.4% 1.91 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.7%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.7%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Brommapojkarna1.2

IF Elfsborg1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

IF BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 1.33

IF ELFSBORG · PPG 1.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.04, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IF Brommapojkarna (H) 35.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +17.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.1%

IF Elfsborg (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Brommapojkarna face IF Elfsborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 36% chance, the draw 26% and IF Elfsborg 38%, so IF Elfsborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.3 for IF Elfsborg (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.44 for IF Elfsborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%.

IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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