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Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:30

Vasteras SK FK

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDW

UPCOMING

Sirius

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+17.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.0%0-24.8%0-33.9%0-4+4.1%1 1-02.8%1-16.8%1-28.2%1-36.5%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.4%2-15.7%2-26.9%2-35.5%2-4+5.9%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-23.9%3-33.1%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 27.8% 3.60 +18.4%

Draw 20.8% 26.7% 3.75 -13.2%

Away win 46.4% 52.6% 1.90 -11.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 63.7% 1.57 +7.4%

Over 3.5 49.4% 41.7% 2.40 +18.6%

BTTS 63.5% 67.6% 1.48 -6.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 41.7% 2.40 +19.8%

Away O1.5 69.2% 58.8% 1.70 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.5%

A 46% / xG 1.7-2.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–1 5.7%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasteras SK FK1.7

Sirius2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VASTERAS SK FK · PPG 1.44

SIRIUS · PPG 2.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.72 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Vasteras SK FK (H) 32.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +18.4%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.2%

Sirius (A) 46.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasteras SK FK face Sirius in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasteras SK FK a 33% chance, the draw 21% and Sirius 46%, so Sirius are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vasteras SK FK and 2.4 for Sirius (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.44 for Sirius. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +38.2%.

Vasteras SK FK vs Sirius Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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