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Gais vs BK Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Gais

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

UPCOMING

BK Hacken

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-17.8%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.1%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.8%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 43.5% 2.30 +7.9%

Draw 25.3% 27.8% 3.60 -5.3%

Away win 27.8% 35.1% 2.85 -12.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 62.5% 1.60 -19.0%

Over 3.5 30.0% 40.8% 2.45 -26.5%

BTTS 52.9% 67.6% 1.48 -21.7%

Home O1.5 45.3% 54.1% 1.85 -16.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 46.5% 2.15 -26.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gais1.6

BK Hacken1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GAIS · PPG 1.80

BK HACKEN · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gais (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.3%

BK Hacken (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gais face BK Hacken in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gais a 47% chance, the draw 25% and BK Hacken 28%, so Gais are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Gais and 1.0 for BK Hacken (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gais are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.67 for BK Hacken. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +1.6%.

Gais vs BK Hacken Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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