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Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 20 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Mjallby AIF

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

IFK Goteborg

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.6%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.5%1-25.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.9%3-16.8%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.6%4+-23.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 43.5% 2.30 +20.1%

Draw 21.6% 30.3% 3.30 -17.2%

Away win 26.3% 35.7% 2.80 -15.8%

Over 2.5 62.4% 58.8% 1.70 +6.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.2% 2.62 +5.3%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 60.2% 50.0% 2.00 +20.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -11.8%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–2 5.5%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mjallby AIF2.1

IFK Goteborg1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MJALLBY AIF · PPG 1.11

IFK GOTEBORG · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mjallby AIF (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +20.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.2%

IFK Goteborg (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mjallby AIF face IFK Goteborg in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mjallby AIF a 52% chance, the draw 22% and IFK Goteborg 26%, so Mjallby AIF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Mjallby AIF and 1.2 for IFK Goteborg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.89 for IFK Goteborg. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +47.6%.

Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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