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Botafogo SP vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:30

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juventude

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.5%0-115.1%0-26.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.0%2-15.7%2-22.3%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.0%3-11.7%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 41.7% 2.40 -7.8%

Draw 32.9% 34.2% 2.92 -3.9%

Away win 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

Over 2.5 36.4% 40.8% 2.45 -10.8%

Over 3.5 17.8% 21.1% 4.75 -9.3%

BTTS 46.7% 51.3% 1.95 -8.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 37.7% 2.65 -11.8%

Away O1.5 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 108 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.7%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 0–1 15.1%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP0.9

Juventude0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.38

JUVENTUDE · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 1.69 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -7.8%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -3.9%

Juventude (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face Juventude in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Juventude 29%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Botafogo SP and 0.8 for Juventude (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Juventude.

Botafogo SP vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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