Today / Brazil - Serie B / Botafogo SP vs Juventude
Botafogo SP vs Juventude Prediction— Brazil - Serie B
Botafogo SP
PPG 1.38 · HOME
Juventude
PPG 1.12 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-022.6% 0-116.1% 0-25.7% 0-31.4% 0-4+0.3% 1 1-017.5% 1-112.5% 1-24.4% 1-31.1% 1-4+0.2% 2 2-06.8% 2-14.8% 2-21.7% 2-30.4% 2-4+0.1% 3 3-01.8% 3-11.3% 3-20.4% 3-30.1% 3-4+0.0% 4+ 4+-00.4% 4+-10.3% 4+-20.1% 4+-30.0% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 38.5% 39.7% 2.52 -3.0%
Draw 33.1% 34.5% 2.90 -4.0%
Away win 28.4% 32.8% 3.05 -8.0%
Over 2.5 35.9% 38.5% 2.60 -6.7%
Over 3.5 15.8% 20.0% 5.00 -12.6%
BTTS 46.4% 48.8% 2.05 -4.9%
Home O1.5 33.3% 34.7% 2.88 -4.1%
Away O1.5 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%
League track record ↗
Based on 179 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 45%
O2.5 56%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 57%
ROI 22.2%
Bet Hit 60%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 31% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-2 xG (home) 0.8 xG (away) 0.7 BTTS prob 46.4%
H 38% / xG 0.8-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 0–0 22.6%
#2 1–0 17.5%
#3 1–1 12.5%
#4 0–1 16.1%
#5 2–0 6.8%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... Chance this pick lands 46% HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.07, combined xG 1.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 26 matches · 2026 Botafogo SP ▾ lower is better Juventude
Attack
4.4 Shots outside box
4.6 30.0% Shooting accuracy
34.8% 31.5% Goals per shot on target
25.9% 1.12 xG for 25·24 of 26
0.98 Defence
3.6 Shots on target faced▾
3.3 1.12 Goals conceded▾
0.58 1.00 xG against▾ 25·24 of 26
1.02 Control
78.6% Pass accuracy
81.3% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Botafogo SP face Juventude in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Juventude 28%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Botafogo SP and 0.7 for Juventude (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Juventude. This match finished 4-2.
Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 00:30
