Today / Brazil - Serie B / Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense
Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B
Cuiaba
PPG 1.56 · HOME
Atletico Goianiense
PPG 1.12 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-018.8% 0-112.2% 0-24.0% 0-30.9% 0-4+0.2% 1 1-019.2% 1-112.5% 1-24.0% 1-30.9% 1-4+0.2% 2 2-09.8% 2-16.4% 2-22.1% 2-30.4% 2-4+0.1% 3 3-03.3% 3-12.2% 3-20.7% 3-30.2% 3-4+0.0% 4+ 4+-01.1% 4+-10.7% 4+-20.2% 4+-30.0% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW ▣ FT RESULT
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 45.3% 51.0% 1.96 -11.2%
Draw 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%
Away win 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%
Over 2.5 39.3% 42.6% 2.35 -7.6%
Over 3.5 19.0% 22.2% 4.50 -8.7%
BTTS 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%
Home O1.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%
Away O1.5 19.9% 25.0% 4.00 -12.2%
League track record ↗
Based on 175 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5 56%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 22.2%
Bet Hit 60%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 34% CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-1 xG (home) 1.0 xG (away) 0.6 BTTS prob 46.5%
H 45% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 0–0 18.8%
#2 1–0 19.2%
#3 1–1 12.5%
#4 0–1✓ 12.2%
#5 2–0 9.8%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... Chance this pick lands 47% HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.67 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Win probability 1X2
Atletico Goianiense (A) 23.3%
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 25 matches · 2026 Cuiaba ▾ lower is better Atletico Goianiense
Attack
5.4 Shots outside box
5.4 31.5% Shooting accuracy
31.0% 21.5% Goals per shot on target
26.4% 1.10 xG for 25·24 of 25
1.52 Defence
2.5 Shots on target faced▾
3.9 0.81 Goals conceded▾
0.92 0.76 xG against▾ 25·24 of 25
1.11 Control
81.3% Pass accuracy
81.8% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Cuiaba face Atletico Goianiense in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Atletico Goianiense 23%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cuiaba and 0.6 for Atletico Goianiense (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.12 for Atletico Goianiense. This match finished 0-1.
Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 23:30
