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Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 23:30

Cuiaba

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico Goianiense

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.4%0-112.7%0-23.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-112.3%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.6%2-15.9%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.1%3-11.9%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 51.0% 1.96 -11.0%

Draw 31.1% 32.3% 3.10 -3.6%

Away win 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.0%

Over 2.5 36.2% 42.6% 2.35 -14.9%

Over 3.5 17.9% 22.2% 4.50 -11.7%

BTTS 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Home O1.5 35.4% 44.4% 2.25 -20.3%

Away O1.5 18.5% 25.0% 4.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.4%

H 45% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.4%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cuiaba1.0

Atletico Goianiense0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CUIABA · PPG 1.56

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.56) > Away AVERAGE (1.12)

Win probability 1X2

Cuiaba (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -11.0%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.6%

Atletico Goianiense (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cuiaba face Atletico Goianiense in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cuiaba a 45% chance, the draw 31% and Atletico Goianiense 23%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cuiaba and 0.6 for Atletico Goianiense (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cuiaba are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.12 for Atletico Goianiense.

Cuiaba vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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