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Athletic Club vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Athletic Club

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

São Bernardo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-114.2%0-27.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-16.4%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 51.0% 1.96 -28.5%

Draw 31.2% 30.8% 3.25 +1.4%

Away win 32.3% 25.3% 3.95 +27.6%

Over 2.5 42.9% 42.6% 2.35 +0.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 22.2% 4.50 +2.1%

BTTS 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Home O1.5 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

Away O1.5 29.9% 25.6% 3.90 +10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.0

São Bernardo1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.44

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 36.5%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -28.5%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +1.4%

São Bernardo (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face São Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 37% chance, the draw 31% and São Bernardo 32%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Athletic Club and 1.0 for São Bernardo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.00 for São Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Athletic Club vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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