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Athletic Club vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Athletic Club

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

São Bernardo

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-115.0%0-27.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.4%2-16.0%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.9%3-11.8%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 51.0% 1.96 -27.1%

Draw 31.5% 30.8% 3.25 +2.4%

Away win 31.3% 25.3% 3.95 +23.6%

Over 2.5 39.6% 42.6% 2.35 -6.9%

Over 3.5 19.8% 22.2% 4.50 -6.5%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 33.3% 44.4% 2.25 -25.1%

Away O1.5 27.1% 25.6% 3.90 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.0%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club0.9

São Bernardo0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.44

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 37.2%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -27.1%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.4%

São Bernardo (A) 31.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face São Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 37% chance, the draw 32% and São Bernardo 31%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Athletic Club and 0.9 for São Bernardo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.00 for São Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.6%.

Athletic Club vs São Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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