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Corinthians vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Corinthians

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Remo

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.5%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 66.7% 1.50 -18.6%

Draw 25.0% 25.6% 3.90 -1.5%

Away win 20.7% 14.3% 7.00 +26.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Home O1.5 46.7% 58.8% 1.70 -20.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.6

Remo0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.56

REMO · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.5%

Remo (A) 20.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Remo in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Remo 21%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Corinthians and 0.8 for Remo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.89 for Remo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 3-0.

Corinthians vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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