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Botafogo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 4 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Botafogo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Vitoria

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.6%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.0%1-16.8%1-23.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-110.0%4+-25.7%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 57.8% 1.73 +6.9%

Draw 19.6% 27.4% 3.65 -17.1%

Away win 18.6% 21.7% 4.60 -8.7%

Over 2.5 67.0% 55.6% 1.80 +20.6%

Over 3.5 44.5% 33.9% 2.95 +31.3%

BTTS 62.5% 58.8% 1.70 +6.3%

Home O1.5 63.3% 57.1% 1.75 +10.8%

Away O1.5 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.8%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo2.6

Vitoria1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.75

VITORIA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

59%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 1.75 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +6.9%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -17.1%

Vitoria (A) 18.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Vitoria 19%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Botafogo and 1.1 for Vitoria (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Botafogo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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