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Botafogo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 4 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 22:30

Botafogo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vitoria

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+20.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.5%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.9%1-16.7%1-23.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.9%2-19.0%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-110.2%4+-25.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 57.5% 1.74 +7.9%

Draw 19.3% 29.0% 3.45 -20.1%

Away win 18.7% 20.4% 4.90 -5.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 55.6% 1.80 +20.6%

Over 3.5 44.3% 34.5% 2.90 +28.5%

BTTS 62.5% 58.8% 1.70 +6.3%

Home O1.5 62.9% 57.8% 1.73 +8.8%

Away O1.5 36.3% 30.3% 3.30 +19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 62% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo2.7

Vitoria1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.75

VITORIA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -20.1%

Vitoria (A) 18.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Vitoria 19%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Botafogo and 1.1 for Vitoria (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +46.1%.

Botafogo vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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