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Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 23:00

Vitoria

PPG 2.08 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Gremio

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.1%0-23.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-112.5%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 48.8% 2.05 -2.8%

Draw 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -6.8%

Away win 24.9% 29.4% 3.40 -9.2%

Over 2.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 39.5% 44.4% 2.25 -11.1%

Away O1.5 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.4

Gremio0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.08

GREMIO · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -2.8%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.8%

Gremio (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Gremio 25%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vitoria and 0.8 for Gremio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.33 for Gremio. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.4%.

Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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