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Colorado Springs vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:00

Colorado Springs

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Miami FC

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.7%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.5%1-110.6%1-25.4%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.2%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Draw 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.5%

Away win 23.0% 18.5% 5.40 +14.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 33.3% 42.6% 2.35 -21.7%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 55.6% 69.0% 1.45 -19.4%

Away O1.5 31.1% 31.3% 3.20 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Springs1.9

Miami FC1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 1.57

MIAMI FC · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Springs (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.5%

Miami FC (A) 23.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Springs face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Springs a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Miami FC 23%, so Colorado Springs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Colorado Springs and 1.0 for Miami FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Springs are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for Miami FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.5%.

Colorado Springs vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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