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Colorado Springs vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 01:00

Colorado Springs

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Miami FC

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 67% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.2%1-19.9%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-16.6%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 71.4% 1.40 -24.4%

Draw 23.0% 22.7% 4.40 +0.7%

Away win 23.0% 16.0% 6.25 +26.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 43.5% 2.30 -13.8%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 55.7% 71.4% 1.40 -22.0%

Away O1.5 36.4% 28.6% 3.50 +27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.2%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Springs2.0

Miami FC1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 1.57

MIAMI FC · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Springs (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +0.7%

Miami FC (A) 23.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Springs face Miami FC in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Springs a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Miami FC 23%, so Colorado Springs are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Colorado Springs and 1.1 for Miami FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Springs are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for Miami FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +39.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Colorado Springs vs Miami FC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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