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Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Brooklyn Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLD

UPCOMING

Brooklyn

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.7%1-16.2%1-22.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.9%3-18.0%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-111.0%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.3% 76.9% 1.30 -12.5%

Draw 17.0% 20.0% 5.00 -9.0%

Away win 15.7% 14.3% 7.00 +5.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 41.5% 45.5% 2.20 -8.7%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 66.6% 73.5% 1.36 -9.4%

Away O1.5 23.5% 23.1% 4.33 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 153 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 67% / xG 2.8-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 3–0 9.9%

#3 1–1 6.2%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.8

Brooklyn0.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 2.00

BROOKLYN · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.98 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay Rowdies (H) 67.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -12.5%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -9.0%

Brooklyn (A) 15.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay Rowdies face Brooklyn in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay Rowdies a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Brooklyn 16%, so Tampa Bay Rowdies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.8 for Brooklyn (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay Rowdies are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Brooklyn. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +10.7%.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Brooklyn Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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