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Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Phoenix Rising

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.9%0-26.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.0%1-112.2%1-28.2%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 35.7% 2.80 +2.8%

Draw 24.5% 29.4% 3.40 -10.0%

Away win 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 32.6% 40.0% 2.50 -18.5%

BTTS 55.9% 65.4% 1.53 -14.5%

Home O1.5 39.5% 42.0% 2.38 -6.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 52.4% 1.91 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.9%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay1.4

Phoenix Rising1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 1.27

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +2.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.0%

Phoenix Rising (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face Phoenix Rising in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Phoenix Rising 39%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Monterey Bay and 1.4 for Phoenix Rising (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.91 for Phoenix Rising. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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