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Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

UPCOMING

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.9%0-26.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.0%1-113.1%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.6%2-17.9%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 34.7% 2.88 +2.8%

Draw 26.2% 34.5% 2.90 -14.4%

Away win 38.1% 43.5% 2.30 -12.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

Away O1.5 34.2% 42.0% 2.38 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 153 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

A 38% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.36

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.4%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A) 38.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Pittsburgh Riverhounds in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Pittsburgh Riverhounds 38%, so Pittsburgh Riverhounds are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Miami FC and 1.2 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.27 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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