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Sporting JAX vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

Lexington

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.1%0-26.5%0-34.6%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.1%1-18.7%1-29.2%1-36.6%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.6%2-34.7%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 29.4% 3.40 -2.9%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 2.5 65.0% 63.7% 1.57 +2.1%

Over 3.5 44.8% 42.0% 2.38 +6.6%

BTTS 63.3% 64.5% 1.55 -1.9%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 58.6% 59.9% 1.67 -2.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 50% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 6.2%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting JAX1.4

Lexington2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.60

LEXINGTON · PPG 0.90

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

DANGER

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Sporting JAX (H) 28.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.9%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Lexington (A) 50.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting JAX face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting JAX a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Lexington 50%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sporting JAX and 2.1 for Lexington (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting JAX are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.90 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Sporting JAX vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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