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San Antonio vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:30

San Antonio

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

UPCOMING

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.2%0-25.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

Draw 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Away win 36.0% 33.3% 3.00 +8.0%

Over 2.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Over 3.5 26.6% 26.7% 3.75 -0.1%

BTTS 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

Away O1.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.9%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 1–0 13.1%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Antonio1.2

FC Tulsa1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.64

FC TULSA · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Antonio (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.9%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

FC Tulsa (A) 36.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Antonio face FC Tulsa in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Antonio a 37% chance, the draw 28% and FC Tulsa 36%, so San Antonio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for San Antonio and 1.0 for FC Tulsa (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Antonio are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.56 for FC Tulsa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.7%.

San Antonio vs FC Tulsa Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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