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Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:00

Orange County SC

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

UPCOMING

Sacramento Republic

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-111.0%0-26.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.0%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.2%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 50.0% 2.00 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–1 11.0%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orange County SC1.2

Sacramento Republic1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 1.40

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 1.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.09, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orange County SC (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Sacramento Republic (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orange County SC face Sacramento Republic in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orange County SC a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Sacramento Republic 37%, so Orange County SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orange County SC and 1.1 for Sacramento Republic (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orange County SC are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.09 for Sacramento Republic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.7%.

Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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