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Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Detroit City

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

UPCOMING

Hartford Athletic

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.4%0-110.1%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.7%1-111.3%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-16.3%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.5%3-12.4%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 54.6% 1.83 -15.8%

Draw 31.6% 30.3% 3.30 +4.3%

Away win 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Over 2.5 34.6% 51.3% 1.95 -32.5%

Over 3.5 18.2% 29.4% 3.40 -22.9%

BTTS 42.4% 54.6% 1.83 -22.4%

Home O1.5 31.1% 52.4% 1.91 -40.6%

Away O1.5 14.0% 25.0% 4.00 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 153 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.4%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.7%

#2 0–0 19.4%

#3 0–1 10.1%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 1–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Detroit City1.1

Hartford Athletic0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DETROIT CITY · PPG 2.30

HARTFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Detroit City (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -15.8%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +4.3%

Hartford Athletic (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Detroit City face Hartford Athletic in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Detroit City a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Hartford Athletic 23%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Detroit City and 0.5 for Hartford Athletic (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Detroit City are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.33 for Hartford Athletic.

Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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