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Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas Lights

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

UPCOMING

New Mexico United

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-111.5%0-26.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-17.5%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-12.9%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 50.0% 2.00 -28.4%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 57.8% 1.73 -12.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 52.9% 60.6% 1.65 -12.7%

Home O1.5 31.2% 52.4% 1.91 -40.4%

Away O1.5 35.8% 38.2% 2.62 -6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 154 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas Lights1.1

New Mexico United1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.45

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 1.56

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

58%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.06, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas Lights (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

New Mexico United (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas Lights face New Mexico United in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas Lights a 36% chance, the draw 28% and New Mexico United 36%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.2 for New Mexico United (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas Lights are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.56 for New Mexico United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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