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Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Indy Eleven

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

Birmingham Legion

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.1%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.9%1-110.9%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-15.9%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 57.8% 1.73 -7.8%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 34.7% 40.0% 2.50 -13.3%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 153 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Indy Eleven1.8

Birmingham Legion0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 2.30

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Indy Eleven (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Birmingham Legion (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Indy Eleven face Birmingham Legion in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Indy Eleven a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Birmingham Legion 23%, so Indy Eleven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Indy Eleven and 0.9 for Birmingham Legion (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Indy Eleven are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.67 for Birmingham Legion.

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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