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Rhode Island vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Rhode Island

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Louisville City

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+40.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.2%0-22.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.7%1-19.0%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.0%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-16.3%4+-23.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Draw 21.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.3%

Away win 24.5% 34.5% 2.90 -17.4%

Over 2.5 62.0% 54.1% 1.85 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 30.8% 3.25 +30.6%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 64.0% 45.5% 2.20 +40.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 153 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rhode Island2.2

Louisville City1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.90

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rhode Island (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.3%

Louisville City (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rhode Island face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rhode Island a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Louisville City 25%, so Rhode Island are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Rhode Island and 1.2 for Louisville City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rhode Island are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.27 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +65.6%.

Rhode Island vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions