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Nautico Recife vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Londrina

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.9%0-24.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 54.3% 1.84 -10.8%

Draw 25.3% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

Away win 26.2% 22.7% 4.40 +9.2%

Over 2.5 52.1% 50.0% 2.00 +4.2%

Over 3.5 30.5% 29.0% 3.45 +5.2%

BTTS 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Home O1.5 45.8% 51.3% 1.95 -10.7%

Away O1.5 36.3% 28.6% 3.50 +27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 104 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 21.3%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico Recife1.5

Londrina1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.25

LONDRINA · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Nautico Recife (H) 48.5%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -10.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.2%

Londrina (A) 26.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico Recife face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico Recife a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Londrina 26%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nautico Recife and 1.1 for Londrina (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico Recife are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.89 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Nautico Recife vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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