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Nautico Recife vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 00:30

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Londrina

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.1%1-26.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.4%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 54.3% 1.84 -10.2%

Draw 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -8.9%

Away win 26.5% 23.8% 4.20 +6.8%

Over 2.5 55.7% 50.0% 2.00 +11.4%

Over 3.5 34.9% 28.6% 3.50 +22.1%

BTTS 55.4% 54.6% 1.83 +1.4%

Home O1.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Away O1.5 36.9% 28.6% 3.50 +29.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico Recife1.7

Londrina1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.25

LONDRINA · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nautico Recife (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -10.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.9%

Londrina (A) 26.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico Recife face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico Recife a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Londrina 27%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nautico Recife and 1.2 for Londrina (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico Recife are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.89 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Nautico Recife vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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